Showing posts with label us economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label us economics. Show all posts

Friday, September 28, 2012

Interest Rates Are Prices - Ron Paul


One of the most enduring myths in the United States is that this country has a free market, when in reality, the market is merely the structural shell of formerly free institutions. Government pulls the strings behind the scenes. No better illustration of this can be found than in the Federal Reserve's manipulation of interest rates.

The Fed has interfered with the proper function of interest rates for decades, but perhaps never as boldly as it has in the past few years through its policies of quantitative easing. In Chairman Bernanke's most recent press conference he stated that the Fed wishes not only to drive down rates on Treasury debt, but also rates on mortgages, corporate bonds, and other important interest rates. Markets greeted this statement enthusiastically, as this means trillions more newly-created dollars flowing directly to Wall Street.

Because the interest rate is the price of money, manipulation of interest rates has the same effect in the market for loanable funds as price controls have in markets for goods and services. Since demand for funds has increased, but the supply is not being increased, the only way to match the shortfall is to continue to create new credit. But this process cannot continue indefinitely. At some point the capital projects funded by the new credit are completed. Houses must be sold, mines must begin to produce ore, factories must begin to operate and produce consumer goods.

But because consumption patterns have either remained unchanged or have become more present-oriented, by the time these new capital projects are finished and begin to produce, the producers find no market for their goods. Because the coordination between savings and consumption was severed through the artificial lowering of the interest rate, both savers and borrowers have been signaled into unsustainable patterns of economic activity. 

Resources that would have been used in productive endeavors under a regime of market-determined interest rates are instead shuttled into endeavors that only after the fact are determined to be unprofitable. In order to return to a functioning economy, those resources which have been malinvested need to be liquidated and shifted into sectors in which they can be put to productive use.

Another effect of the injections of credit into the system is that prices rise. More money chasing the same amount of goods results in a rise in prices. Wall Street and the banking system gain the use of the new credit before prices rise. Main Street, however, sees the prices rise before they are able to take advantage of the newly-created credit. The purchasing power of the dollar is eroded and the standard of living of the American people drops.

We live today not in a free market economic system but in a "mixed economy", marked by an uneasy mixture of corporatism; vestiges of free market capitalism; and outright central planning in some sectors. Each infusion of credit by the Fed distorts the structure of the economy, damages the important role that interest rates play in the market, and erodes the purchasing power of the dollar. Fed policymakers view themselves as wise gurus managing the economy, yet every action they take results in economic distortion and devastation.

Unless Congress gets serious about reining in the Federal Reserve and putting an end to its manipulation, the economic distortions the Fed has caused will not be liquidated; they will become more entrenched, keeping true economic recovery out of our grasp and sowing the seeds for future crisis.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Jack Abramoff: "Shut the revolving door between public service and lobbying"

In Washington DC, it is well known that lobbyists highly influence Congress, and according to a Gallup Poll, lobbying was rated lower in public opinion than telemarketing and car sales. Jack Abramoff, former lobbyist, author and one time considered the most powerful lobbyist, found himself behind bars for fraud. He now joins us and tells us what he learned from his time in prison.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Geithner Interview - the Debt Ceiling Fight (Meet the Press)



A Tim Geithner Interview, speaking on behalf of the Federal Reserve - the Debt Ceiling Fight (Meet the Press)

"The Most Important Thing We Can Do Is To Be Taking Steps To Get People Back To Work"

Geithner talking economics theory.. and what's best for Americans...

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Why the Misery Index Is Higher Than the Feds Let On


The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues its hiatus from doom and gloom yesterday – up more than 100 points so far today on what would be its fourth consecutive winning session.

A four-day winning streak may not seem like much, but as The Daily Reckoning faithful will recall, the Dow has fallen for six straight weeks. Perhaps the Blue Chips will fall for a seventh straight week, but so far the Dow is solidly in the black.

Sure, the reasons for lightening up on stocks remain just as compelling today as they did last week (and the five weeks before that), but that doesn’t mean the stock market has to fall every day.

Greece is still racing towards an inevitable default, America’s governmental finances – from Washington to Sacramento – are still sickly and the US economy’s performance still continues to disappoint.

So, yeah, stocks might drop again tomorrow…http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif

But there is “a time for everything,” as the writer of Ecclesiastes observed about three millennia ago…and the Byrds re-iterated about three decades ago. And this week – so far – is simply not the time for selling.

Ample time remains for selling stocks, of course,…and also for buying them. But when it comes to buying, you know our view: Stick with the companies that provide indispensable goods and services. Stick with the companies that provide the world’s “must haves,” rather than the world’s “like to haves.”

Read more: Economic News and Ideas on Debt, the Market, Gold, Oil, and Investing. http://dailyreckoning.com/

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Bernanke Expresses Concern Over Sluggish United States Economy January 09, 2011

The United States Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke said while the US economy was showing signs of a recovery, this was not yet sufficient to address lingering unemployment.

Addressing the Senate Budget Committee, Bernanke said it would take a number of years for the employment situation in the United States to reach “normal” levels. He said :” We have seen increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery in consumer and business spending may be taking hold”. He added that the job market improvement had been “modest” at best.

Bernanke said that :” Persistently high unemployment, by damping household income and confidence, could threaten the strength and sustainability of the recovery”. He added that low inflation was also a key concern as :” Very low inflation increases the risk that new adverse shocks could push the economy into deflation”.

United States Labour Department figures showed that US unemployment dropped marginally in December to 9.4% from 9.8% the month before. The drop was the largest recorded in a single month in over 12 years. This is mitigated however by the statistic that 260,000 Americans were removed from the calculation after giving up on seeking employment.

Job Creation Not Good; Bernanke Says to Give It Four or Five Years

The Labor Department has reported that the economy created 103,000 jobs last month. That’s not good. With revisions, the economy created 71,000 jobs in November and 210,000 in October.

The unemployment rate fell to 9.4%. Ben Bernanke testified before Congress this morning. Here’s the bit getting a lot of attention:

Although it is likely that economic growth will pick up this year and that the unemployment rate will decline somewhat, progress toward the Federal Reserve’s statutory objectives of maximum employment and stable prices is expected to remain slow. The projections submitted by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants in November showed that, notwithstanding forecasts of increased growth in 2011 and 2012, most participants expected the unemployment rate to be close to 8 percent two years from now. At this rate of improvement, it could take four to five more years for the job market to normalize fully.


Monday, July 19, 2010

With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932 Economics Theory


"Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May suffered their biggest tumble since March of last year. So what are we doing about it? Less than nothing," he said.

California is tightening faster than Greece. State workers have seen a 14pc fall in earnings this year due to forced furloughs. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is cutting pay for 200,000 state workers to the minimum wage of $7.25 an hour to cover his $19bn (£15bn) deficit.

Can Illinois be far behind? The state has a deficit of $12bn and is $5bn in arrears to schools, nursing homes, child care centres, and prisons. "It is getting worse every single day," said state comptroller Daniel Hynes. "We are not paying bills for absolutely essential services. That is obscene."

Roughly a million Americans have dropped out of the jobs market altogether over the past two months. That is the only reason why the headline unemployment rate is not exploding to a post-war high.

Let us be honest. The US is still trapped in depression a full 18 months into zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), and fiscal stimulus that has pushed the budget deficit above 10pc of GDP.

The share of the US working-age population with jobs in June actually fell from 58.7pc to 58.5pc. This is the real stress indicator. The ratio was 63pc three years ago. Eight million jobs have been lost.

The average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks. Nothing like this has been seen before in the post-war era. Jeff Weniger, of Harris Private Bank, said this compares with a peak of 21.2 weeks in the Volcker recession of the early 1980s.

"Legions of individuals have been left with stale skills, and little prospect of finding meaningful work, and benefits that are being exhausted. By our math the crop of people who are unemployed but not receiving a check amounts to 9.2m."

Republicans on Capitol Hill are filibustering a bill to extend the dole for up to 1.2m jobless facing an imminent cut-off. Dean Heller from Nevada called them "hobos". This really is starting to feel like 1932.

Washington's fiscal stimulus is draining away. It peaked in the first quarter, yet even then the economy eked out a growth rate of just 2.7pc. This compares with 5.1pc, 9.3pc, 8.1pc and 8.5pc in the four quarters coming off recession in the early 1980s.

The housing market is already crumbling as government props are pulled away. The expiry of homebuyers' tax credit led to a 30pc fall in the number of buyers signing contracts in May. "It is cataclysmic," said David Bloom from HSBC.

Federal tax rises are automatically baked into the pie. The Congressional Budget Office said fiscal policy will swing from
a net +2pc of GDP to -2pc by late 2011. The states and counties may have to cut as much as $180bn.

Investors are starting to chew over the awful possibility that America's recovery will stall just as Asia hits the buffers. China's manufacturing index has been falling since January, with a downward lurch in June to 50.4, just above the break-even line of 50. Momentum seems to be flagging everywhere, whether in Australian building permits, Turkish exports, or Japanese industrial output.

On Friday, Jacques Cailloux from RBS put out a "double-dip alert" for Europe. "The risk is rising fast. Absent an effective policy intervention to tackle the debt crisis on the periphery over coming months, the European economy will double dip in 2011," he said.

It is obvious what that policy should be for Europe, America, and Japan. If budgets are to shrink in an orderly fashion over several years – as they must, to avoid sovereign debt spirals – then central banks will have to cushion the blow keeping monetary policy ultra-loose for as long it takes.

The Fed is already eyeing the printing press again. "It's appropriate to think about what we would do under a deflationary scenario," said Dennis Lockhart for the Atlanta Fed. His colleague Kevin Warsh said the pros and cons of purchasing more bonds should be subject to "strict scrutiny", a comment I took as confirmation that the Fed Board is arguing internally about QE2.

Perhaps naively, I still think central banks have the tools to head off disaster. The question is whether they will do so fast enough, or even whether they wish to resist the chorus of 1930s liquidation taking charge of the debate. Last week the Bank for International Settlements called for combined fiscal and monetary tightening, lending its great authority to the forces of debt-deflation and mass unemployment. If even the BIS has lost the plot, God help us.

View Source

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Stocks Snap Back to Reality as Earnings Weigh


The stock market has come tumbling back to earth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's precipitous drop Friday has pulled blue-chips lower for the week, swiftly ending hopes that U.S. stocks were ready to rally. Stocks have lost the momentum built since hitting their lowest point of the year two weeks ago, and are now stalling just as second-quarter earnings season heats up.

The retreat comes as investors grapple with two uncomfortable prospects: lackluster corporate earnings and a cooling economy. Nowhere is that clearer than in financial stocks, which many traders use as a leading indicator for how the broader market will perform.

"People are looking at bank earnings and they are not seeing any growth," said Charles Mercer, portfolio manager of the Aston/Todd-Veredus Select Growth Fund. "They're not seeing any expansion of these banks' balance sheets that points toward any loan demand. That is one the factors that's been a scare in the market here since April."

Stocks suffered a bruising second quarter, with the Dow falling nearly 10% and the Standard & Poor's 500 giving up close to 12%, as fears of the impact of a euro zone sovereign debt crisis and the prospect of a slowing global economy swirled. The end of the second quarter also coincided with a ratcheting up of fears about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Stocks rebounded last week and early this week, as initial optimism about second-quarter earnings briefly wiped the economic concerns from the radar. But weakness in earnings from large banks -- along with more downbeat economic data -- has brought those fears roaring back.

The market's plunge came after Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. issued disappointing quarterly reports, and forecast the future will remain turbulent. Investors are also worried about how big banks will profit if their trading operations are hurt by new federal financial regulations.

Bank of America dropped over 9% in late-afternoon trading, and was the biggest decliner of the Dow's 30 components. The blue chip index, which ended down 261.03 points, or 2.5%, at 10097.97, is down 1% for the week, though it's still up 3.3% for the month.

The earnings reports startled investors who just last week were betting that earnings would come in largely better than expected. Initial reports from Alcoa and Intel seemed to support that. Investors hoped that a strong batch of earnings would overshadow any concerns about the economy -- but some of the reports have proven too difficult to ignore.

Economic data in the past week have shown that consumers are gloomy, manufacturing is slowing, and the Federal Reserve trimmed its outlook for 2010.

Other markets are flashing warning signals too. Interest rate futures markets are signaling an increasing shift in expectations that the economy could fall back into recession after a brief recovery, with the September and December Eurodollar futures contracts heading for a rare inversion. That has in the past indicated a contracting economy.

The Treasurys market continues to flag a slowdown in the economy, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading below 3% after falling there around the end of the second quarter.

In contrast with stocks, bonds are up for the week with the 10-year yield down more than 0.1 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

In the currency markets too, the dollar has been under pressure for some time - the euro briefly breached the key $1.30 level on Friday - as concerns about the U.S. economy dominate just as investors have become less worried about the euro zone.

Source: JOE BEL BRUNO

Saturday, July 3, 2010

The current economic contraction longest since 1929 Economics Theory



The current economic contraction began in December 2007 with unemployment at 5.0 percent. Joblessness climbed slowly month after month until it peaked at 10.1 percent in October 2009. Today, according to the June report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment stands at 9.5 percent. Congress, the White House, and the media have hammered away at this near double-digit jobless rate for months in part because President Obama insisted that joblessness would not climb above 8 percent if his stimulus package were approved. Thus, most Americans including those who have not been personally touched by the economic slump are aware that the last time joblessness reached 10 percent was in the early 1980s. However, the public probably does not know that the current contraction very likely is the longest on record since the 43-month contraction in August 1929-March 1933.

The official agency that dates the business cycle in the United States is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Unlike many others, the Committee does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of a decline in GDP. Instead it defines a contraction as a significant decline in economic activity across the economy that lasts more than a few months as indicated by real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. It has not yet determined the date of the trough in economic activity that identifies the end of the current contraction.

If the Committee determines that the trough came in May 2009 the current contraction would have lasted 17 months and would become the longest on record since 43-month contraction in August 1929-March 1933. Longer than the 16-month contractions in November 1973-March 1975 and July 1981-November 1982.

Since the jobless rate to date has not fallen below the May 2009 rate of 9.4 percent, Mayo Research Institute expects the Dating Committee to fix the end of the contraction sometime later in 2009, possibly October when joblessness hit 10.1 percent. An October 2009 trough would make for a contraction that lasted 22 months. What sets this contraction apart from the other 12 contractions since 1929-1933 is a combination of a very high unemployment rate and a nearly two-year duration.

Concerns about the size of the federal deficit and the public debt, the still fragile housing and commercial real estate markets, continuing bank failures, cash-laden investors shying away from shaky financial markets, sagging consumer confidence, the weakening of the euro, the future of deepwater drilling, contagion related to the sovereign crisis in Greece that may spill over to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland, already scheduled higher tax rates starting in 2011, not to mention geopolitical instability in Mideast, make for fears that any economic expansion following the current contraction will be cut short. In other words, we may be headed toward a double-dip recession.

There are two instances of double-dip recessions since the end of World War II: the April 1958 trough that was followed by an expansion phase that lasted only 24 months; the July 1980 trough followed by an even shorter 12-month expansion phase. In sharp contrast the last three expansion phases lasted 92, 120, and 73 months.

With the two double-dip recessions, tax cuts were the prescribed remedy though in the first case President Kennedy’s Keynesian economic advisers justified the cuts in the early 1960s as necessary to strengthen aggregate demand. In the second case President Reagan’s supply-side advisers, having lost confidence in Keynesian economics, argued the need in the early 1980s to bolster aggregate supply.

Is the United States headed toward a double-dip recession? NO, if the necessary market corrections already have taken place and prices across the board have declined sufficiently to clear away surpluses in labor, resource, product, and financial markets. YES, if those surpluses remain in place and further corrections are necessary.

It could be argued that the very duration of the current contraction has provided all the correction needed. But keep in mind that the huge contraction that ended in March 1933 did not provide all of the correction necessary to haul the U.S. economy out of the Great Depression. That 43-month contraction was followed by a 13-month contraction that got underway in May 1937.

Even the best economic analysts see the future as if “through a glass, darkly.” Even so, Mayo Research Institute hazards two forecasts, both based on the historical record. First, whether a double-dip recession is in our immediate future or not, we can say with considerable confidence that the jobless rate will remain high for several more years because economic history demonstrates that labor markets respond slowly to market corrections. To illustrate, it took 14 years for the August 1983 jobless rate of 9.5 percent to drop to 4.9 percent.

Second, whether there is a double-dip recession in our immediate future or not, we can say with even more confidence that there is another contraction further down the road. Leaving aside the war years of the early to mid 1940s, we experienced two contractions in the 1940s, two in the 1950s, one in the 1960s followed by another that began at the very end of the decade and extended into the next, one other in the 1970s, two in the 1980s, one in the 1990s, and two others more recently.

What we don’t know with any measure of certainty is when that contraction will take occur. Mayo Research Institute is inclined to think that next expansion phase will not run as long as the last three which averaged 8 years because all three were driven by the job-creating, entrepreneurial energy of the ICT revolution. Based on the 9 other expansions since the end of World War II, our best guess is that the coming expansion will peak in approximately 4 years. If as we suggested earlier the latest trough is dated sometime around May-October 2009, it follows that the coming expansion phase will top out sometime in 2013.

The historical record establishes clearly that economics has not yet figured out how to prevent a contraction. Further, economics is split on how best to cure a contraction with Keynesians, monetarists, supply-siders, and neoclassicals offering different remedies. At best we are able to alleviate some of its effects through programs like unemployment insurance until the slump ends and expansion sets in. Some argue, however, that by putting off the necessary market corrections alleviative measures such as extending the maximum duration of unemployment insurance benefits from 26 to 99 weeks make the contraction even worse.

View Source